ITEN

Launch effect

After Phantom Blade Zero, rivals lost 4.2% against the expected trend

When a big game launches, how many players its same-genre rivals lose against the expected trend.

3 launches in the last 30 daysReadings at 05:00 UTC

Phantom Blade Zero

Released October 28, 2026Genre: RPGBefore: October 27, 2026After: November 8, 2026

Against the expected trend, same-genre rivals lost 4.2% of their players.

Gap from expected, by rival

Cyberpunk 2077−26.8%The Witcher 3: Wi…−23.0%Aniimo−16.8%Don't Starve Toge…−13.8%Palworld−11.8%Terraria−6.6%Baldur's Gate 3+0.5%The Elder Scrolls…+1.5%Limbus Company+21.8%TBH: Task Bar Hero+118.5%

Bar: estimated gap. Thin line: 80% interval (how much any game moves). Rivals with the whole interval below zero: 2 of 10.

Launch players345,061
Estimated share taken from rivals≈ 5%

The rest of the launch audience is new, returning or comes from other genres.

Expected catalogue trend between the two days: +40.7% (median of 148 games in other genres).

Probably Stolen - Cyberpunk Shopkeeper Sim

Released October 28, 2026Genre: RPGBefore: October 27, 2026After: November 8, 2026

Against the expected trend, same-genre rivals lost 4.2% of their players.

Gap from expected, by rival

Cyberpunk 2077−26.8%The Witcher 3: Wi…−23.0%Aniimo−16.8%Don't Starve Toge…−13.8%Palworld−11.8%Terraria−6.6%Baldur's Gate 3+0.5%The Elder Scrolls…+1.5%Limbus Company+21.8%TBH: Task Bar Hero+118.5%

Bar: estimated gap. Thin line: 80% interval (how much any game moves). Rivals with the whole interval below zero: 2 of 10.

Launch players135,167
Estimated share taken from rivals≈ 14%

The rest of the launch audience is new, returning or comes from other genres.

Expected catalogue trend between the two days: +40.7% (median of 148 games in other genres).

ROB RUN

Released November 4, 2026Genre: RPGBefore: November 3, 2026After: November 8, 2026

Against the expected trend, same-genre rivals lost 9.3% of their players.

Gap from expected, by rival

Aniimo−27.9%TBH: Task Bar Hero−27.2%Cyberpunk 2077−17.2%The Witcher 3: Wi…−3.9%Palworld−2.3%Baldur's Gate 3−1.3%The Elder Scrolls…−0.3%Terraria+1.8%Don't Starve Toge…+5.9%Limbus Company+30.0%

Bar: estimated gap. Thin line: 80% interval (how much any game moves). Rivals with the whole interval below zero: 2 of 10.

Launch players68,492
Estimated share taken from rivals≈ 63%

The rest of the launch audience is new, returning or comes from other genres.

Expected catalogue trend between the two days: +30.1% (median of 152 games in other genres).

Method

For each launch we compare the 05:00 UTC reading of the last day before release with the latest one available. The expected trend is the median change of games in other genres over the same days, so weekends, season and Steam's overall trend cancel out.

Rivals: games in the same main genre with at least 1,000 players the day before and released more than 30 days earlier. The interval is the 10th–90th percentile of the control games' gaps.

This is an estimate, not proof: rivals' sales, updates and events in the same period move the numbers. The daily history started on October 17, 2026: comparisons get more precise with more days.